Plotting 2031 in 2024: The crack, The enmity 

One of the stories we were told in those days of tales by moonlight (Àlọ́ Àpamọ̀ and Àlọ́ Àpagbè) was that of the Hyena (Ìkookò). All carnivorous animals met and agreed to collective hunting and storage of food (hunted animals) in a store house.

They gave eight days from the day of their meeting for the arrangement to begin and decided that the store house will be managed by the Hyena. Strangely, upon the announcement of Mr Hyena as the storekeeper, he started crying. The other animals asked Oga Hyena the reason for crying, he said; “I am already afraid for the day you people will change your minds and replace me.”

For this fear of a possible change of mind, the Hyena started creating enmity between their leader, King Lion and other carnivorous animals perceived as his possible replacement in case the decision to make him storekeeper was rescinded. Hyena will go to King Lion and tell him all kinds of tales against animal this and that. 

Before eight days, there was already serious hatred among the carnivorous animals, such that when they gathered to announce the take-off of the joint storage of food arrangement, even King Lion could no longer trust anyone. And that was how the plan collapsed before it took off and all the animals went their separate ways!

Like the impatient and greedy Hyena, those who see themselves as President Bola Tinubu’s possible successor appear not ready to wait for the President to finish his first tenure before plotting for 2031.

In pursuing their 2031 ambition in 2024, they appear to be unmindful of the fact that their own ambition depends on the success of the Tinubu’s first tenure and his possible reelection in 2027.

In other words, it is only when President Tinubu is reelected in 2027 that the ambition to succeed him by any of those already plotting 2031 can be realized.

That is; even if you have the advance endorsement of the President for 2031, there is still the huddle of 2027 to cross and President Tinubu needs all those who helped in achieving 2023 to actualise 2027.

What is being insinuated is that those perceived as capable of contesting for President in the APC in 2031 are being pushed aside, such that they would have no political strength even before 2027.

For instance, it is being calculated that should the presidency returns to the North in 2031, it will be the turn of either the North-East or North-Central. Therefore, major political figures in these two regions are said to have become targets.

Also, it is being insinuated that some certain personalities from the North-East is already seeing themselves as the anointed for the President while some others from the South are positioning themselves as possible candidates for Vice President.

For this reason, perceived obstacles are being cleared ahead and in the process, enemies are being created for the man whose success will enable the actualisation of the 2031 ambition.

Of recent, one APC loyalist, who have not stopped voicing out on what he called sharp division, pull-him-down syndrome and bad blood going on within the ruling APC, is Jesutega Onokpasa, a member of the party’s Presidential Campaign Council for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

He has been warning that the alleged gang-up against those who played key roles in the emergence of President Tinubu should stop.

Onokpasa, specifically claimed that certain individuals in the party and within President Tinubu’s government were not relenting in their plot against former Governors Yahaya Bello and Nasir el-Rufai.

He warned some Tinubu’s appointees, who he said were using the instrumentality of power to torment Bello and El-Rufai to desist, saying the contributions and support of the former governors in the victory of the party were unquantifiable.

For instance, one of the governors who led the charge to ensure that the APC zoned its presidential ticket to the South was Nasir El-Rufai. He was the governor of Kaduna State then. 

How did he fail to scale through the Senate ministerial confirmation? What manner of a security report will cost a former Minister and two term Governor a ministerial nomination? 

When the then National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Adamu, addressed the press and boasted that Tinubu will be sanctioned for speaking in the manner he spoke against President Muhammadu Buhari, in Abeokuta, Ogun State, it was the then National Vice Chairman of APC, North-west, Salihu Lukman that countered him (Adamu).

Lukman had said that Adamu’s remained his personal opinion and did not represent the decision of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party. But last year, Lukman resigned from his position as a member of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the APC. Two months ago, he resigned his membership of the party saying “his membership in the APC has been rendered useless.”

Immediately after President Tinubu, emerged as the candidate of the APC, one of those he visited was Yahaya Bello. During the visit, the President praised him (Bello) for “mobilising the consciousness of youths during his campaign.”

President Tinubu, who was accompanied on the visit by three serving governors then —Babajide Sanwo-Olu (Lagos); Bello Matawalle (Zamfara); and Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), described Bello as “his son.”

On that day, Bello, who also contested the APC presidential primary election, collapsed his Presidential Campaign Organisation and donated his campaign organisation secretariat to the President. He worked assiduously as the National Youth Coordinator of the Tinubu-Shettima Presidential Campaign Council. 

Today, it appears that Bello, has been left in the cold.

One can go on and on, but the story will still remain the same – President Tinubu is being made to push aside some of his foot soldiers by elements who are more desirous of their 2031 ambition.

But it appears these elements did not take time to study how governors who have ruled Lagos State after President Tinubu emerged?

In 2007, Babatunde Raji Fashola, was not anywhere near the political reckoning to succeed Tinubu. He was not even known beyond the circle of those in the Alausa seat of power in Lagos State. But he was Governor of Lagos State for eight years, courtesy of the endorsement of Tinubu.

Same for Akinwumi Ambode in 2015. And when it was time to replace Ambode in 2019, no one heard about Babajide Sanwo-Olu until his posters and billboards surfaced.

However, will those already pushing  2031 ambition in 2024 learn from the emergence of Fashola, Ambode and Sanwo-Olu in Lagos? I doubt.

Real students of Tinubu’s politics of successor will simply face the tasks of today, and leave tomorrow to determine itself. 

And these tasks of today is to revive the economy of the country and reduce hardships being faced by Nigerians. Those in charge of security among the President’s men will focus on ending insecurity in the country and make Nigerians safe in their own country. By doing so, they will be helping the President to secure a second term, which is the only ticket to the actualisation of their own 2031 ambition.

But will they?

Lere Olayinka, a journalist lives in the topmost part of Oke Agbonna in Okemesi Ekiti